The GOP's base is imploding
Trump's incompetence, MAGA caring about Epstein, and Republican cruelty are having weird effects on the base
For all the online talk of the Democratic Party being unpopular, it’s the Republicans who should be worried about their popularity. While Trump did win the popular vote, he only won by less than 2% but has since acted as if they won by 20+. In the six months since Trump re-entered the White House, his every action has backfired so much that it’s hard to imagine Republicans’ current coalition being able to survive another four years.
Trump's victory was caused by inflation-induced rage and a rightward shift on immigration, so it’s amazing how he has utterly destroyed his popularity in both areas. His tariffs have been such a rollercoaster that, instead of lowering prices, they’re set to cause explosive inflation [1]. Meanwhile, Trump and Miller have taken such an extreme immigration policy that what was once his strongest area is now his weakest. Similarly, while Trump was never trusted on healthcare because of his attempt to end ACA during his first term, passing the “kill the poor” bill/OBBB looks to devastate rural communities because of the trillion-dollar cut from Medicare. All these insane actions are starting to hurt Trump despite our fears that the media ecosystem could convince the American public otherwise. The recent Gallup poll shows that Trump’s ratings have dropped with immigration, economy, trade, and the budget all in the 30s or lower. Trump’s approval rating is 37%, which is only three points above his lowest rating of 34%, recorded immediately after January 6th.
But besides Trump’s approval rating tanking, we have proof that Trump’s actions are hurting him with the demographics Republicans will need in the future. Trump’s 2024 win came from the Latino vote’s massive swing, which they decided to throw away by targeting them with inhuman immigration policies. Thus, there was an expected swing against Trump as seen by the YouGov poll, where 68% of Latinos now disapprove of Trump compared to the 32% that still approve.
The youth vote, which had a similar swing in 2024, also shows them souring on him. With 72% of the youth vote disapproving of him, compared to only 28% that approve of him.
The most shocking swing is the white vote, where it’s a complete tie. Considering that Republicans are the white nationalist party, things must be bad if half of white Americans are sick of Trump.
As Trump crashes and burns, we’re starting to see it affecting Republicans as well. While it’s strongly assumed that Democrats will win the 2026 midterms, the big question has always been how large. It’s far too early to make any accurate predictions when the midterm election is over a year away, but there’s evidence of Republicans’ popularity dying fast. Despite being only 6 months since the start of this administration, Democrats are already leading the Generic Congressional Ballot [2]. To reference how bad this is for Republicans, during 2021, Democrats were still leading at this point. The fact that Rasmussen, a completely biased right-wing pollster, even reports that Democrats are leading in the Generic Congressional Ballot.
As I’ve said before, it’s far too early to make an accurate prediction but based on the facts that we have now, it does not look good for Republicans. Their every action is their base from demographics they recently won over as well as their most loyal demographic. If things continue, Republicans are looking at their coaliation not only shattering but even some damage with their base due to Trump’s historic incompetence.
Source:
[1] https://www.vox.com/politics/421026/trump-tariffs-inflation-prices-fed
[2]
Yeah, but this is nonsense...the only way he can get re-elected is if he eliminates the 2028 election.