The Senate is still winnable
The Senate is still winnable
Throw away your doomerims, we have country to save
2024 has brought out the doomer in lots of Democrats but none more than the Senate. Some outright think its out of Democrat’s reach this year and maybe they’re right but I’d would rather come to that conclusion in hindsight after actually trying than crying how it’s impossible. We know that this map is painful but we are underestimating something that has tripped up Republicans for the last 4 years straight, they are Republicans. Republican primaries are controlled by MAGA manics that pick freaks like Marjorie Greene as their flagbearers. We won both Georgia senate seats in 2020 and then gained a seat in 2022. I honestly believe we have a shot to keep the Senate in 2024 for these reasons
MT: Sheehy many, many issues
Tim Sheehy, the Montana GOP senate candidate feels like an exercise in how to fumble a senate race which the GOP has had PLENTY of experience doing. He has done so many things that are just insane. He wants to end Homeland Security [1] which prevents undocumented immigrants from entering which is just grade A thinking since Republicans, the party far more annoying about the border, are already facing attacks on the border because Senate Republicans did the “genius idea” to kill their own border bill because convicted felon Trump wanted something to campaign on. He’s employed an anti-semitic staffer [2], while this won’t harm him at all with Republican who are just terrible people, independents will be disgusted. A more serious issue for Republicans voters though is he used to believe in global warming [3] which would likely make some of them foam at the mouth that their candidate believes in science and FACTS, the horror! That’s not even getting into the fact Sheehy is currently being sued for accidently KILLING SOMEONE [4]. And most damning, he is currently lying that his gunshot wound was caused when he was serving in Afghanistan when he previously said he said he was shot in a national park [5]. Republicans even if they’ve degraded into people that would rather believe Jewish lasers exist than accept they lost an election, have enough standards to hate anyone that dare to lie about what happened when they were serving in the military, guess everyone does have standards!
This also hits the fact that Jon Tester is one of the more popular incumbents, if not the MOST popular incumbent who is flushed with cash and has a complex plan to win. With MT about to have it’s own abortion right ballot initiative and Tester aggressively targeting voters on the Reserves that are massively Democratic. I don’t think it means Tester has it in the bag but he has a much better shot than people would think.
[1]
[2]
source: https://www.axios.com/2024/05/08/montana-tim-sheehy-caleb-oriet-instagram?utm_campaign=editorial&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter
[3]
source: tweet: https://x.com/purrtah/status/1780386870284976588.
News Article: https://www.huffpost.com/entry/republican-senate-tim-sheehy-climate-hypocrisy_n_661ea563e4b015646f795ce1?d_id=7544175&ncid_tag=tweetlnkushpmg00000016&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter&utm_campaign=us_politics
[4]
source: https://www.thedailybeast.com/top-montana-gop-senate-recruit-tim-sheehy-faces-lawsuit-over-wild-plane-crash
[5]
OH: Moreno, the candidate Democrats picked
Bernie Moreno is Ohio’s Republican Senate candidate and one of the few cases this cycle where Trump and the NRSC, the committee dedicated to electing Republican Senators, disagreed. The NRSC wanted Matt Dolan who was also preferred by OH’s Republican establishment while convicted felon, Trump wanted Bernie Moreno because he borderling worship anti-christ, Trump while Dolan disliked the felon. Thus Trump went all into campaigning for Moreno which was mistake as Moreno has his own controversies. For one just before the OH primary, it was broken that Moreno has an account on a gay dating app [6] continuing the stereotype that every male republican is bolted shut in their closet. Adding to that Moreno as a used car salesman in OH has lied about selling Chinese-man cars [7] which in OH, a very blue-collar state that loathes globalization due lots of companies moving their factories aka their jobs out of the state, lots of unions have attacked Moreno for being the type of person to self-identify as Republican, a selfish asshole who is more than willing to sellout his voters if it meant he’d get a penny. To top it off, Moreno is anti-abortion, claiming that he wants a 15 week abortion ban [8]. Too bad in 2023, OH had two ballot initiatives all about abortion rights and TWICE abortion rights won by over 10 points [9]. All these factors are why Democrats themselves helped Moreno win the primary [10], a tactic Democrats have used since 2022 and has successfully brought about them victory so I trust they know what they are doing this time as well.
Democrats also have reason to breathe a bit easier as Sherrod Brown is a popular incumbent, being the last standing statewide Democrat in OH, dude is as rare as a dragon or Republican that has shame. OH Democrats boosted by their victories in 2023, plan to make the election all about abortion[11]. Overall, I don’t think Brown will win by the numbers abortion rights victories had 2023 BUT they give me hope he can survive.
[6]
https://heartlandsignal.com/2024/03/15/report-ohio-gop-senate-candidate-bernie-moreno-linked-to-gay-dating-profile/
[7]
https://thecourier.com/news/522799/union-leaders-say-moreno-lying/
[8]
source: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/30/us/politics/republican-senate-races-abortion.html?unlocked_article_code=1.wE0.MaeP._do0u5PPzlHo&smid=url-share
[9]
[10]
[11]
source: https://www.axios.com/local/cleveland/2024/04/18/abortion-ohio-november-election-bernie-moreno-sherrod-brown
AZ: Sinema out, Lake is around
Arizona has been a weird state that 4 years ago, we all thought was ruby red and then by 2022, we had no republican senators and a fully blue executive branch in the state. But even then most thought AZ would be a headache because of the incumbent senator Sinema becoming an independent after realizing Democrats hate her for being a primadonna who almost seemed to enjoy pissing off her constituents. We got lucky when Sinema got the hint when she saw her wallet was empty and dropped out, allowing a head to head between Democratic Senate candidate Gallego and Republican candidate Kari Lake. Lake is such a mess that the head of the AZ Republican party tried to BRIBE HER to drop out [12]. The fact the former lead of the state GOP party thought she couldn’t win tell a lot as well as the fact Lak actually got the head of the state party to quit DURING an election year. This means the management of all AZ Republicans campaigns will be at best clumsy, at worst have the competency of convicted felon Trump’s legal team. Like most elections since 2022, abortion rights will be a major issue especially after the AZ supreme court made the 1864 abortion ban legal. Lake has no idea who to respond, being forced to flip flop[13] from being anti-abortion at first then being in favor of legal abortion after the 1864 abortion ban was made legal again and then flipping back to anti-abortion while Gallego has had a consistent, abortions should be legal, view the entire time. Overall Lake will be a divisive and insane candidate who will kick out valuable voters from her campaign like she did in 2022[14] while Gallego will be sane and strategic.
[12]
[13]
source: https://azmirror.com/2024/04/17/kari-lake-flips-on-abortion-ban-but-at-tucson-event-says-she-wants-to-save-as-many-babies-as-possible/
[14]
source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/15/opinions/kari-lake-mccain-arizona-republicans-gabriel/index.html
Other spots
While MT, OH and AZ are the main areas, I think people were too doomer on, it doesn’t mean they are the only areas to focus on. This map is undeniably bad for Democrats BUT Republicans have for 4 years now thrown away a majority because of bad candidates and these years candidates are just as bad. We have NV, PA, WI and MI to care about. NV, PA and WI have incumbents in their elections while MI is a borderline blue state at this point, if you have time and/or money I would do what you can to help. MD is also a state that might be an issue but I think it’s not that important but if you live in the state, help out when you can. You can donate to the site Blue24 that shares your donation to each senate candidate set up by the wondeful Charles Gaba who by the way doesn’t get ANY money from this.
Below that you can help the Democratic candidates in Texas and Florida. With Cruz in generally being hated even his GOP colleague and being is oddly worried about this race. And Rick Scott also barely won the last time. I personally don’t have much faith BUT if you live in these states, I say try if you want. I’ll link the candidates donate and volunteer pages.
Convicted Felon, Trump factor
Finally the Trump factor or negative factor. Convicted Felon Trump is the most diversive and HATED candidate Republicans could have run. He’s attractive to his cult, too bad his cult are the weirdo degenerates that everyone stays away from. He has only grown weaker and more deluded. His “rallies” has him only meakly scream about his losses such as his fair loss in 2020 and his recent court losses which are taking his time, energy and MONEY. He is squeezing the RNC dry while destroying various programs to get Republicans and right-leaning independents to register and out to vote. And Democrats are now leaning into calling him a convicted felon which will undeniably damage him especially in the swing states which has senate important elections aka NV, AZ, WI, PA and MI. Even the red states are in trouble since Trump doesn’t care about anyone besides himself, he won’t set up offices in red states which will hurt the GOP’s attempts to flip MT and OH. Overall Trump is likely to damage Republican’s chances to win the senate which is impressive since their candidates were doing a pretty good job of doing that beforehand.
Overall I don’t mean to say “we can relax, we’ll win the senate”. I mean to say we can STILL win the Senate but we need to put in the work. Donate, Volunteer, hell talk about the candidate’s on your social media. We can worry after the election is over, now is the time to work.
Links:
Sherrod Brown: Volunteer/Donate
Tammy Baldwin: Volunteer/Donate
Ruben Gallego: Volunteer/Donate
Elissa Slotkin: Volunteer/Donate
Bob Casey Jr.: Volunteer/Donate
Angela Alsobrooks: Volunteer/Donate