2026 looks apocalyptic for Republicans

While it's very early, Republicans look doomed during the midterms.

Few things are as set in stone in US politics as the midterm effect where the party that controls the White House tends to lose either the House and/or Senate two years later during the next national election. Despite fears that Republicans might defy the midterm effect due to our twisted information environment, Trump has done his worst to make everyone hate Republicans only halfway through 2025. We’re already seeing some major warning signs for the GOP that 2026 might make 2018 look cute in comparison.

Incumbents retiring

Incumbency is a major asset in American politics because incumbents can raise money far more efficiently than challengers. Thus when hoping to dull or even defeat the midterm effect, it’s better to retain as many incumbents as possible. Thus the fact that we already have Republican Representatives and Senators announcing that they will not run for re-election when the midterms are a year and a half away.

When Rep. Bacon (R-NE) announced his decision not to run [1], everyone was both shocked and not surprised. It was an open secret that Bacon was essentially a dead man walking since Bacon’s district, an Omaha City suburb, has continually gotten bluer as the years have passed. And on cue, Omaha City even elected their first Democratic mayor in a decade and their first Black mayor ever [2]in 2025 proving that his district had outgrown him.

But while Bacon’s announcement was shocking because of how early it was, Senator Tillis’ announcement was a political earthquake. Unlike Bacon, Tillis had a chance because of how purple North Carolina is. Tillis' retirement changed a close race to one where Democrats might have the advantage especially if popular former governor Roy Cooper decides to run as most are expecting.

Recruiting issues

During midterm elections, the in-power party still targets seats to flip to negate potential/probable losses but that only works if you recruit the right candidate for the right race/district/state. So the fact that two very popular [3] GOP Governors decided not to run [4] for the Senate caused the GOP to massively gulp.

Chris Sununu is the four-time governor of New Hampshire and the NH Republican Party’s dream candidate to flip Senator Shaheen’s open seat when she declined to run again. Sununu was considered such an amazing candidate that Trump even asked him to run despite Sununu and Trump’s bad blood. But as bad as Sununu’s snub was, Georgia Governor Kemp's declining to run for Senator Ossoff’s seat was even worse. As Ossoff points out in his fundraising ads, he is the only Democratic senator in a state that Trump won thus a prime pickup target for Republicans. Hoping to counter the midterm headwinds with Kemp, their dreams were shattered as Ossoff’s chances of keeping his seat have massively increased.

Democrats smell the blood in the water

As Republicans reveal their political suicide ideation by trying to pass the “kill off the poors” bill/One Big Beautiful Bill/OBBB, Democrats see a weakness to exploit. Alaska Senator Murkowski was the deciding vote for the bill despite initially being worried over the OBBB’s effects on her state. Despite the bill cutting over 900 BILLION from Medicaid when 1/3 of Alaskans are covered by Medicaid [5], Senator Murkowski still voted for it for the tax cuts. But in the Republicans’ dogma worship of tax cuts, they made a massive mistake that Democrats are keen to exploit.

While Alaska is a red state, in recent years the state has voted quite interestingly with Democrats winning Alaska’s only House seat in 2022, and even flipping Fairbanks’ mayorship in 2024 [6]. Since both Alaskan senators voted to devastate their state, Democrats decided to hold a virtual town hall for Alaska to ensure that Senators Murkowski and Sullivan pay a political price for their votes. Even more telling, former Representative Mary Peltola, who won the single House seat in 2022, was so outraged by Murkowski and Sullivan’s actions that she pinned a tweet on her Twitter account calling out Republicans for harming the state for no reason. While it’s far too early to make any accurate predictions, it seems that Democrats see potential in Alaska for 2026.

Musk’s revenge

To make matters worse for Republicans, they also have to deal with Trump’s toxic ex, Elon Musk. Since their VERY public break-up, Musk has made clear that he will not stand for the OBBB hurting his finances or Trump humiliating him by kicking him to the curb [7] with Musk revealing that he plans to interfere in Republican primaries and even create a third party.

Musk’s plans are nothing more than a recipe to destroy the Republican party. While his interfering with primaries could potentially cause conflict in the party, it’s his third party that has the potential to end the GOP. Third parties are nothing more than a thorn in the side/spoiler to the main parties but because of Musk’s insane far-right beliefs, whatever support he’ll gather, will only take from the Republicans. Musk has the money to burn, the narcissistic arrogance that he can upend the US political system, and the petty determination to follow through so that Trump suffers.

2026 was always going to be a rough year for Republicans due to the midterm effect but it’s starting to look downright hellish for them now. From incumbents retiring early, their star recruitment failing, Democrats potentially expanding their map, and Musk threatening to destroy the GOP, nothing seems to suggest anything but utter destruction for Republicans. Of course, it is far too early to make any accurate predictions for an election nearly a year and a half away but there is nothing to suggest 2026 is going to be anything but a bloodbath for Republicans. It’s getting to the point that Democratic Senator Brian Schatz believes the Senate might be in play.

source: https://x.com/brianschatz/status/1940585780445172179

Sources:

[1] https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5376897-don-bacon-retires-nebraska-congress/

[2] https://nebraskaexaminer.com/2025/05/16/blue-dot-will-have-a-democratic-mayor-what-it-means-for-nebraska-politics/

[3] https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/08/sununu-new-hampshire-senate-seat-00278230

[4] https://www.politico.com/news/2025/05/05/georgia-gov-brian-kemp-passes-on-running-for-senate-00327843

[5] https://www.thenorthernlight.org/stories/alaskas-impact-the-big-beautiful-bill

[6] https://mustreadalaska.com/breaking-hopkins-wins-borough-mayors-race-in-fairbanks/

[7] https://www.rawstory.com/elon-musk-trump-2672500501/?link_source=ta_bluesky_link&taid=6862988320991e000130dbad&utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_medium=social&utm_source=bluesky