Right but it's not just Rs. I've been sitting there for days on end reading just raw numbers from the University of Florida Election Lab website, freaking out about low Dem turnout in Nevada. Now, if I read you correctly, a significant portion of the 24.8% of ballots that have been returned thus far by "None/Minor" party candidates are likely going to be for Harris because they're registered automatically as Other at the DMV. Even if that's only 5%, that would significantly cut into the perceived Republican lead. That's actually a massive miss for anyone reporting on this.
Honestly in 2022 it was 2-1 for Others that broke for Democrats. If anything there is more to suggest it will be greater for us this year and it's being hidden. NC seems to be interesting since Trump and Republicans are obviously nervous about it
Thanks for this analysis. Really clears up a lot of the panic I've been hearing in the last week.
No problem. Republicans lie and media wants us scared for clicks
Wow. This is the first analysis I've read that has actually gotten me to a semi-calm place. Thank you.
look this election is complex and with Republicans not wanting to tell the truth and media just wanting clicks it looks worse than it actually is
Right but it's not just Rs. I've been sitting there for days on end reading just raw numbers from the University of Florida Election Lab website, freaking out about low Dem turnout in Nevada. Now, if I read you correctly, a significant portion of the 24.8% of ballots that have been returned thus far by "None/Minor" party candidates are likely going to be for Harris because they're registered automatically as Other at the DMV. Even if that's only 5%, that would significantly cut into the perceived Republican lead. That's actually a massive miss for anyone reporting on this.
Honestly in 2022 it was 2-1 for Others that broke for Democrats. If anything there is more to suggest it will be greater for us this year and it's being hidden. NC seems to be interesting since Trump and Republicans are obviously nervous about it
A Republican who votes for Harris is still reported as Republican - this is not actual votes